What is the Sequence of Returns Risk?

Retegy Team
Retegy Team

November 26, 2018

A look at how variable rates of return do (and do not) impact investors over time.

What exactly is the “sequence of returns”? The phrase simply describes the yearly variation in an investment portfolio’s rate of return. Across 20 or 30 years of saving and investing for the future, what kind of impact do these deviations from the average return have on a portfolio’s final value?

The answer: no impact at all.

Once an investor retires, however, these ups and downs can have a major effect on portfolio value – and retirement income.

During the accumulation phase, the sequence of returns is ultimately inconsequential. Yearly returns may vary greatly or minimally; in the end, the variance from the mean hardly matters. (Think of “the end” as the moment the investor retires: the time when the emphasis on accumulating assets gives way to the need to withdraw assets.)

An analysis from BlackRock bears this out. The asset manager compares three model investing scenarios: three investors start portfolios with lump sums of $1 million, and each of the three portfolios averages a 7% annual return across 25 years. In two of these scenarios, annual returns vary from -7% to +22%. In the third scenario, the return is simply 7% every year. In all three scenarios, each investor accumulates $5,434,372 after 25 years – because the average annual return is 7% in each case.1

Here is another way to look at it. The average annual return of your portfolio is dynamic; it changes, year-to-year. You have no idea what the average annual return of your portfolio will be when “it is all said and done,” just like a baseball player has no idea what his lifetime batting average will be four seasons into a 13-year playing career. As you save and invest, the sequence of annual portfolio returns influences your average yearly return, but the deviations from the mean will not impact the portfolio’s final value. It will be what it will be.1

When you shift from asset accumulation to asset distribution, the story changes. You must try to protect your invested assets against the sequence of returns risk.

This is the risk of your retirement coinciding with a bear market (or something close). Even if your portfolio performs well across the duration of your retirement, a bad year or two at the beginning could heighten concerns about outliving your money.

For a classic illustration of the damage done by the sequence of returns risk, consider the awful 2007-2009 bear market. Picture a couple at the start of 2008 with a $1 million portfolio, held 60% in equities and 40% in fixed-income investments. They arrange to retire at the end of the year. This will prove a costly decision. The bond market (in shorthand, the S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) gains 5.7% in 2008, but the stock market (in shorthand, the S&P 500) dives 37.0%. As a result, their $1 million portfolio declines to $800,800 in just one year.2

If you are about to retire, do not dismiss this risk. If you are far from retirement, keep saving and investing knowing that the sequence of returns will have its greatest implications as you make your retirement transition.

Citations.

1 – blackrock.com/pt/literature/investor-education/sequence-of-returns-one-pager-va-us.pdf [6/18] 2 – kiplinger.com/article/retirement/T047-C032-S014-is-your-retirement-income-in-peril-of-this-risk.html [7/3/18]


Retegy Team

November 26, 2018

Share:

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note – investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Recent updates
...

New Year, New Rules

Vladimir Kouznetsov, EA, CFP® - Jan 8, 2024
Read More
...

Navigating "Five-Year Rules" of Roth Accounts

Vladimir Kouznetsov, EA, CFP® - Oct 26, 2023
Read More
...

Understanding the Ins and Outs of Workplace 401(k) Plans

Vladimir Kouznetsov, EA, CFP® - Jul 28, 2023
Read More
...

Managing Debt: Effective Strategies

Vladimir Kouznetsov, EA, CFP® - Jul 25, 2023
Read More
...

Top Financial Mistakes to Avoid

Vladimir Kouznetsov, EA, CFP® - Jul 14, 2023
Read More

Copyright © 2023 Retegy LLC. All rights reserved.

Vladimir Kouznetsov, EA, CFP® is an investment advisor representative at Retegy LLC.
Retegy LLC is a registered investment advisor offering advisory services in the State of California, Washington, and other jurisdictions where exempted. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The presence of this website on the Internet shall not be directly or indirectly interpreted as a solicitation of investment advisory services to persons of another jurisdiction unless otherwise permitted by statute. Follow-up or individualized responses to consumers in a particular state by Retegy LLC in the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation shall not be made without our first complying with jurisdiction requirements or under an applicable state exemption.
The information on this site is provided “AS IS” and without warranties of any kind either express or implied. To the fullest extent permissible under applicable laws, Retegy LLC disclaims all warranties, express or implied, including, but not limited to, implied warranties of merchantability, non-infringement, and suitability for a particular purpose. Retegy LLC does not warrant that the information will be free from error. None of the information provided on this website is intended as investment, tax, accounting or legal advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as an endorsement of any company, security, fund, or other securities or non-securities offering. The information should not be relied upon for purposes of transacting securities or other investments. Your use of the information is at your sole risk. Under no circumstances shall Retegy LLC be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages that result from the use of, or the inability to use, the materials in this site, even if Retegy LLC or a Retegy LLC authorized representative has been advised of the possibility of such damages. In no event shall Retegy LLC have any liability to you for damages, losses, and causes of action for accessing this site. Information on this website should not be considered a solicitation to buy, an offer to sell, or a recommendation of any security in any jurisdiction where such offer, solicitation, or recommendation would be unlawful or unauthorized.
ADA Compliance Policy: Retegy LLC is committed to keeping our site compliant with the Americans with Disabilities Act. We welcome feedback on how to improve our site to make it accessible to everyone.